A temporal framework of large wildfire suppression in practice, a qualitative descriptive study

Suppression activities on large wildfires are complicated. Existing suppression literature does not take into account this complexity which leaves existing suppression models and measures of resource productivity incomplete. A qualitative descriptive analysis was performed on the suppression activities described in operational documents of 10 large wildfires in Victoria, Australia. A five-stage classification system summarises suppression in the everyday terms ofwildfire management. Suppression can be heterogeneous across different sectors with different stages occurring across sectors on the same day. The stages and the underlying 20 suppression tasks identified provide a fundamental description of how suppression resources are being used on largewildfires. We estimate that at least 57% of resource use on our sample of 10 large wildfires falls outside of current suppression modelling and productivity research

Analysis of variation in distance, number, and distribution of spotting in southeast Australian wildfires

Spotting during wildfires can significantly influence the way wildfires spread and reduce the chances of successful containment by fire crews. However, there is little published empirical evidence of the phenomenon. In this study, we have analysed spotting patterns observed from 251 wildfires from a database of over 8000 aerial line scan images capturing active wildfire across mainland southeast Australia between 2002 and 2018. The images were used to measure spot fire numbers, number of “long-distance” spot fires (> 500 m), and maximum spotting distance. We describe three types of spotting distance distributions, compare patterns among different regions of southeast Australia, and associate these with broad measures of rainfall, elevation, and fuel type. We found a relatively high correlation between spotting distance and numbers; however, there were also several cases of wildfires with low spot fire numbers producing very long-distance spot fires. Most long-distance spotting was associated with a “multi-modal” distribution type, where high numbers of spot fires ignite close to the source fire and isolated or small clumps of spot fires ignite at longer distances. The multi-modal distribution suggests that current models of spotting distance, which typically follow an exponential-shaped distribution, could underestimate long-distance spotting. We also found considerable regional variation in spotting phenomena that may be associated with significant variation in rainfall, topographic ruggedness, and fuel descriptors. East Victoria was the most spot-fire-prone of the regions, particularly in terms of long-distance spotting

Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. >500 m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models

Towards a sounder fire ecology

This forum brings together fire ecologists from outside the current wildfire controversy in the US to give their views on three central topics related to ecosystems in which wildfires are an important process. First, how do fire behavior and ecological effects vary between ecosystems? Second, why does this variation require an understanding that goes beyond simple correlations between various fire and ecosystem variables to more careful causal models? Third, how can human values and goals be reconciled with fire disturbance processes in an ecologically sound manner

Wildfire and climate impacts tree hollow density in a temperate Australian forest

Tree hollows are an important landscape resource used by fauna for shelter, nesting, and predator avoidance. In fire-prone landscapes, wildfire and climate may impact hollow dynamics; however, assessments of their concurrent impacts are rare. We conducted a field survey at 80 sites in the Sydney Basin bioregion (Australia) to understand how fire frequency, fire severity, mean annual temperature, and mean annual precipitation concurrently impacted the site-density of small- (10 cm entry width) tree hollows and tree basal scars (which mediate hollow formation via invertebrate access to heartwood), when tree-size and dead/live status were considered. A unimodal relationship occurred between medium- and large-sized hollow densities and fire frequency and severity, respectively, with hollow densities greatest at intermediate frequencies/severities. Increases of 1.82, 1.43, and 1.17 hollows per site were observed between the 1 (reference) and 2, 2 and 3, and 3 and >3 fire frequency categories. Increases of 1.26, 1.75 and 0.75 hollows per site were observed between the low (reference) and moderate, moderate and high, and high and very high fire severity categories. Fire severity was also positively associated with basal scar density, with increases of 2.52, 8.15, and 8.47 trees per site between the low (reference) and moderate, moderate and high, and high and very high categories. A weak positive and stronger negative association was observed between mean annual temperature and small-sized hollow and basal scar density, respectively. Dead and medium-sized tree density was positively associated with medium-sized hollow and basal scar tree density, respectively. Collectively, our results suggest that wildfires, and in some cases climate, have diverse and size-specific impacts on tree hollow and basal scar density. Our results imply that fire regimes that allow for moderately severe wildfire will promote larger-sized tree hollows, which are a limiting resource for many fauna species

Modelling the response of surface fuel to climate change across south-eastern Australia: consequences for future fire regimes

Geophysical Research Abstracts of EGU General Assembly 2014, held 27 April - 2 May, 2014 in Vienna, Austria

Fire

Vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating environmental conditions, including weather and climate. The amount of water and carbon dioxide in the air and the albedo of our planet are all influenced by vegetation, which in turn influences all life on Earth. Soil properties are also strongly influenced by vegetation, through biogeochemical cycles and feedback loops (see Volume 1A—Section 4). Vegetated landscapes on Earth provide habitat and energy for a rich diversity of animal species, including humans. Vegetation is also a major component of the world economy, through the global production of food, fibre, fuel, medicine, and other plantbased resources for human consumptio

Forest fire management, climate change, and the risk of catastrophic carbon losses

Approaches to management of fireprone forests are undergoing rapid change, driven by recognition that technological attempts to subdue fire at large scales (fire suppression) are ecologically and economically unsustainable. However, our current framework for intervention excludes the full scope of the fire management problem within the broader context of fire−vegetation−climate interactions. Climate change may already be causing unprecedented fire activity, and even if current fires are within the historical range of variability, models predict that current fire management problems will be compounded by more frequent extreme fire-conducive weather conditions (eg Fried et al. 2004)

Cost-effective prescribed burning solutions vary between landscapes in eastern Australia

Fire management agencies undertake a range of fire management strategies in an attempt to reduce the risk posed by future wildfires. This can include fuel treatments (prescribed burning and mechanical removal), suppression and community engagement. However, no agency has an unlimited budget and numerically optimal solutions can rarely be implemented or may not even exist. Agencies are trying to quantify the extent to which their management actions reduce risk across multiple values in the most cost-effective manner. In this paper, we examine the cost-effectiveness of a range of prescribed burning strategies across multiple landscapes in south-eastern Australia. Landscapes considered include vegetated areas surrounding the cities of Hobart, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra, and Sydney. Using a simulation approach, we examine the potential range of fires that could occur in a region with varying levels of edge and landscape prescribed burning treatment regimes. Damages to assets are measured for houses, lives, transmission lines, carbon and ecological assets. Costs of treatments are estimated from published models and all data are analyzed using multi-criteria decision analysis. Cost-effectiveness of prescribed burning varies widely between regions. Variations primarily relate to the spatial configuration of assets and natural vegetation. Regions with continuous urban interface adjacent to continuous vegetation had the most cost-effective fuel treatment strategies. In contrast, those regions with fragmented vegetation and discontinuous interfaces demonstrated the lowest cost-effectiveness of treatments. Quantifying the extent to which fuel treatments can reduce the risk to assets is vital for determining the location and extent of treatments across a landscape